Stellar occultations in support of the LUMIO orbit determination

Abstract: This work investigates the use of stellar occultation measurements to enhance the orbit determination performance of the Lunar Meteoroid Impact Observer (LUMIO) mission, operating from a quasi-Halo orbit around the Earth-Moon L2 point. During science phases, when radiometric tracking is sparse and low illumination limits conventional optical navigation methods, occultation events, defined as precise timings of stellar appearances/disappearances behind the Moon's limb, offer a suitable alternative. A simulation tool based on JPL's MONTE library was developed to identify valid occultation events, applying geometric and illumination constraints to exclude non-observable cases. These events were integrated into a batch least-squares orbit determination filter alongside conventional radiometric data. The covariance analysis shows that occultation observables reduce the transverse and normal position uncertainties of LUMIO by up to a factor of two, especially during tracking gaps or occultation-rich arcs. This uncertainty reduction is expected to facilitate station-keeping operations and constrain the surface localization of Lunar Impact Flashes (LIFs), enhancing the mission's scientific return. Sensitivity analyses confirm that the orbit determination performance is primarily driven by the timing accuracy of occultation events, with limited dependence on lunar shape uncertainty below 100 m. These findings confirm the potential of occultation-based navigation to enhance spacecraft autonomy and robustness in low-visibility environments, making it a valuable complement to radiometric techniques for future lunar and deep-space missions.