Precision measurement of neutrino oscillation parameters with 10 years of data from the NOvA experiment

Abstract: This Letter reports measurements of muon-neutrino disappearance and electron-neutrino appearance and the corresponding antineutrino processes between the two NOvA detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. These measurements use a dataset with double the neutrino mode beam exposure that was previously analyzed, along with improved simulation and analysis techniques. A joint fit to these samples in the three-flavor paradigm results in the most precise single-experiment constraint on the atmospheric neutrino mass-splitting, $\Delta m^2_{32}= 2.431^{+0.036}_{-0.034} (-2.479^{+0.036}_{-0.036}) \times 10^{-3}$~eV$^2$ if the mass ordering is Normal (Inverted). In both orderings, a region close to maximal mixing with $\sin^2\theta_{23}=0.55^{+0.06}_{-0.02}$ is preferred. The NOvA data show a mild preference for the Normal mass ordering with a Bayes factor of 2.4 (corresponding to 70\% of the posterior probability), indicating that the Normal ordering is 2.4 times more probable than the Inverted ordering. When incorporating a 2D $\Delta m^2_{32}\textrm{--}\sin^2 2\theta_{13}$ constraint based on Daya Bay data, this preference strengthens to a Bayes factor of 6.6 (87\%).