From Vision to Validation: A Theory- and Data-Driven Construction of a GCC-Specific AI Adoption Index

Abstract: AI is rapidly transforming public-sector processes worldwide, yet standardized measures rarely address the unique drivers, governance models, and cultural nuances of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This study employs a theory-driven foundation derived from an in-depth analysis of literature review and six National AI Strategies (NASs), coupled with a data-driven approach that utilizes a survey of 203 mid- and senior-level government employees and advanced statistical techniques (K-Means clustering, Principal Component Analysis, and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling). By combining policy insights with empirical evidence, the research develops and validates a novel AI Adoption Index specifically tailored to the GCC public sector. Findings indicate that robust infrastructure and clear policy mandates exert the strongest influence on successful AI implementations, overshadowing organizational readiness in early adoption stages. The combined model explains 70% of the variance in AI outcomes, suggesting that resource-rich environments and top-down policy directives can drive rapid but uneven technology uptake. By consolidating key dimensions (Infrastructure & Resources, Organizational Readiness, and Policy & Regulatory Environment) into a single composite index, this study provides a holistic yet context-sensitive tool for benchmarking AI maturity. The index offers actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to harmonize large-scale deployments with ethical and regulatory standards. Beyond advancing academic discourse, these insights inform more strategic allocation of resources, cross-country cooperation, and capacity-building initiatives, thereby supporting sustained AI-driven transformation in the GCC region and beyond.