1.8 per cent measurement of $H_0$ from Cepheids alone

Abstract: One of the most pressing problems in current cosmology is the cause of the Hubble tension. We revisit a two-rung distance ladder, composed only of Cepheid periods and magnitudes, anchor distances in the Milky Way, Large Magellanic Cloud, NGC 4258, and host galaxy redshifts. We adopt the SH0ES data for the most up-to-date and carefully vetted measurements, where the Cepheid hosts were selected to harbour also Type Ia supernovae. We introduce two important improvements: a rigorous selection modelling and a state-of-the-art density and peculiar velocity model using Manticore-Local, based on the Bayesian Origin Reconstruction from Galaxies (BORG) algorithm. We infer $H_0 = 71.7 \pm 1.3\,\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, assuming the Cepheid host sample was selected by estimated supernova magnitudes. Less plausible selection criteria shift $H_0$ by about one standard deviation. The posterior has a lower central value and a 45 per cent smaller error than a previous study using the same data. The result is also slightly lower than the supernova-based SH0ES inferred value of $H_0 = 73.2 \pm 0.9\,\mathrm{km}\,\mathrm{s}^{-1}\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$, and is in $3.3\sigma$ tension with the latest standard cosmological model microwave background results. These results demonstrate that a measurement of $H_0$ of sufficient precision to weigh in on the Hubble tension is achievable using second-rung data alone, underscoring the importance of robust and accurate statistical modelling.