Uncertainty Quantification on State-Based Conflict Detection and Resolution Algorithms

Abstract: This study investigates how navigation uncertainty affects conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) for uncrewed aircraft in U-space. Position and velocity errors are modelled as zero-mean Gaussian noise consistent with ADS-L accuracy, and propagated through conflict metrics using Monte Carlo and analytical approximations. Under uncertainty, state-based detection becomes probabilistic. The probability of detection depends on both the level of uncertainty and the encounter geometry, and falls below 50% when the nominal intrusion time equals the look-ahead. Operationally, detection is re-evaluated over time as the encounter develops, yielding multiple observations with varying probabilities. Two resolution algorithms are compared: Modified Voltage Potential (MVP) and Velocity Obstacle (VO). MVP proves more robust under uncertainty because it explicitly maximises distance at the closest point of approach (CPA). By maximising CPA distance, MVP maintains an outward push and avoids reversal behaviour during the manoeuvre, whereas VO performance degrades at low relative speeds and shallow angles. BlueSky simulations confirm these effects: MVP achieves higher intrusion-prevention rates and larger post-resolution miss distances across conflict scenarios, with its advantage most pronounced at low relative velocity. The findings highlight the importance of maximising CPA distance as a conflict resolution strategy. Moreover, the look-ahead horizon and protected zone can be tuned to achieve a desired target level of safety.