Trajectories and Comparative Analysis of Global Countries Dominating AI Publications, 2000-2025

Abstract: This study investigates the shifting global dynamics of AI research by analysing the trajectories of countries dominating AI publications between 2000 and 2025. Drawing on the comprehensive OpenAlex dataset and employing fractional counting to avoid double attribution in co-authored work, the research maps the relative shares of AI publications across major global players. The analysis reveals a profound restructuring of the international AI research landscape. The US and the European Union (EU27), once the undisputed and established leaders, have experienced a notable decline in relative dominance, with their combined share of publications falling from over 57% in 2000 to less than 25% in 2025. In contrast, China has undergone a dramatic ascent, expanding its global share of AI publications from under 5% in 2000 to nearly 36% by 2025, thereby emerging as the single most dominant contributor. Alongside China, India has also risen substantially, consolidating a multipolar Asian research ecosystem. These empirical findings highlight the strategic implications of concentrated research output, particularly China's capacity to shape the future direction of AI innovation and standard-setting. While the study calculates the volume of AI publications (in percentage as global share) as a measure of research dominance, it also acknowledges limitations in capturing quality and impact, suggesting scholarly research areas for future work on high-impact AI scholarship.