Exploring the Synergy of Quantitative Factors and Newsflow Representations from Large Language Models for Stock Return Prediction

Abstract: In quantitative investing, return prediction supports various tasks, including stock selection, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Quantitative factors, such as valuation, quality, and growth, capture various characteristics of stocks. Unstructured financial data, like news and transcripts, has attracted growing attention, driven by recent advances in LLMs. This paper examines effective methods for leveraging multimodal factors and newsflow in return prediction and stock selection. First, we introduce a fusion learning framework to learn a unified representation from factors and newsflow representations generated by an LLM. Within this framework, we compare three representative methods: representation combination, representation summation, and attentive representations. Next, building on empirical observations from fusion learning, we explore the mixture model that adaptively combines predictions made by single modalities and their fusion. To mitigate the training instability observed in the mixture model, we introduce a decoupled training approach with theoretical insights. Finally, our experiments on real investment universes yield several insights into effective multimodal modeling of factors and news for stock return prediction.