Coupling Agent-based Modeling and Life Cycle Assessment to Analyze Trade-offs in Resilient Energy Transitions

Abstract: Transitioning to sustainable and resilient energy systems requires navigating complex and interdependent trade-offs across environmental, social, and resource dimensions. Neglecting these trade-offs can lead to unintended consequences across sectors. However, existing assessments often evaluate emerging energy pathways and their impacts in silos, overlooking critical interactions such as regional resource competition and cumulative impacts. We present an integrated modeling framework that couples agent-based modeling and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to simulate how energy transition pathways interact with regional resource competition, ecological constraints, and community-level burdens. We apply the model to a case study in Southern California. The results demonstrate how integrated and multiscale decision making can shape energy pathway deployment and reveal spatially explicit trade-offs under scenario-driven constraints. This modeling framework can further support more adaptive and resilient energy transition planning on spatial and institutional scales.