Manipulating Collective Opinion through Social Network Intervention

Abstract: Social media platforms have transformed the dynamics of collective opinion formation, enabling rapid, large-scale interactions while simultaneously exposing online discourse to polarization and manipulation. Traditional models of opinion dynamics often predict convergence to a consensus, yet empirical evidence consistently highlights persistent polarization and radicalization, especially on contentious issues. This paper analytically investigates a mathematical model that captures the complex interplay of polarization, radicalization, and consensus within networked societies. By analyzing the emergence and stability of opinion clusters, we identify critical thresholds marking phase transitions in collective behavior, interpreted via a stability landscape. We further explore network-based interventions to manipulate the collective opinion, revealing that reducing inter-agent interactions can lead to unintended, irreversible shifts in opinion distributions. Our results underscore the dual-edged nature of intervention strategies, offering theoretical insight into the fragility and manipulability of public opinion in digital environments.