Waveform-Based Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Ground-Motion Generative Models

Abstract: In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the exceedance probability of a ground-motion intensity measure (IM) is typically evaluated. However, in recent years, dynamic response analyses using ground-motion time histories as input have been increasingly common in seismic design and risk assessment, and thus there is a growing demand for representing seismic hazard in terms of ground-motion waveforms. In this study, we propose a novel PSHA framework, referred to as waveform-based PSHA, that enables the direct evaluation of the probability distribution of ground-motion waveforms by introducing ground-motion models (GMMs) based on deep generative models (ground-motion generative models; GMGMs) into the PSHA framework. In waveform-based PSHA, seismic hazard is represented, in a Monte Carlo sense, as a set of ground-motion waveforms. We propose the formulation of such a PSHA framework as well as an algorithm for performing the required Monte Carlo simulations. Three different GMGMs based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) are constructed. After verifying the performance of each GMGM, hazard evaluations using the proposed method are conducted for two numerical examples: one assuming a hypothetical area source and the other assuming an actual site and source faults in Japan. We demonstrate that seismic hazard can be represented as a set of ground-motion waveforms, and that the IM-based hazard obtained from these waveforms is consistent with the results of conventional PSHA using GMMs. Finally, nonlinear dynamic response analyses of a building model are performed using the evaluated seismic hazard as input, and it is shown that exceedance probabilities of engineering demand parameters (EDPs) as well as hazard disaggregation with respect to EDPs can be carried out in a straightforward manner within the proposed framework.