A novel approach to profile global circulation pathway of SARS-CoV-2 variants by site-based mutation dynamics

Abstract: The genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has caused recurring epidemic waves, understanding its global dispersal patterns is critical for effective surveillance. We developed the Site-based mutation dynamics - Equal Power Sampling (S-EPS) framework, a phylogenetic-free, bias-correcting framework for profiling viral source-sink dynamics. Applying S-EPS to 6.6 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes (March 2020 - June 2024) from 13 regions worldwide, we identified Africa and the Indian subcontinent as the predominant sources of key mutations. Southeast Asia serves as an early transmission hub, while Russia and South America mainly acted as sinks. Key mutations took longer to establish fitness in source regions than externally. Once an amino acid substitution on the receptor-binding domain reached 1% prevalence in major sources, there is an 80% probability it would spread elsewhere, with a 2-month median lead time (IQR: 1-4). Our findings underscore the importance of genetic surveillance, with S-EPS offering enhanced capability for monitoring emerging viral threats.