Occupational Tasks, Automation, and Economic Growth: A Modeling and Simulation Approach

Abstract: The Fourth Industrial Revolution commonly refers to the accelerating technological transformation that has been taking place in the 21st century. Economic growth theories which treat the accumulation of knowledge and its effect on production endogenously remain relevant, yet they have been evolving to explain how the current wave of advancements in automation and AI technology will affect productivity and different occupations. The work contributes to current economic discourse by developing an analytical task-based framework that endogenously integrates knowledge accumulation with frictions that describe technological lock-in and the burden of knowledge generation and validation. The interaction between production (or automation) and growth (or knowledge accumulation) is also described explicitly. To study how automation and AI shape economic outcomes, I rely on high-throughput calculations of the developed model. The effect of the model's structural parameters on key variables such as the production output, wages, and labor shares of output is quantified, and possible intervention strategies are briefly discussed. An important result is that wages and labor shares are not directly linked, instead they can be influenced independently through distinct policy levers.