AI-Driven Spectrum Occupancy Prediction Using Real-World Spectrum Measurements

Abstract: Spectrum occupancy prediction is a critical enabler for real-time and proactive dynamic spectrum sharing (DSS), as it can provide short-term channel availability information to support more efficient spectrum access decisions in wireless communication systems. Instead of relying on open-source datasets or simulated data, commonly used in the literature, this paper investigates short-horizon spectrum occupancy prediction using mid-band, 24X7 real-world spectrum measurement data collected in the United States. We construct a multi-band channel occupancy dataset through analyzing 61 days of empirical data and formulate a next-minute channel occupancy prediction task across all frequency channels. This study focuses on AI-driven prediction methods, including Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, and compares their performance against a conventional Markov chain-based statistical baseline. Numerical results show that learning-based methods outperform the statistical baseline on dynamic channels, particularly under fixed false-alarm constraints. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of AI-driven spectrum occupancy prediction, indicating that lightweight learning models can effectively support future deployment-oriented DSS systems.