ExplainerPFN: Towards tabular foundation models for model-free zero-shot feature importance estimations

Abstract: Computing the importance of features in supervised classification tasks is critical for model interpretability. Shapley values are a widely used approach for explaining model predictions, but require direct access to the underlying model, an assumption frequently violated in real-world deployments. Further, even when model access is possible, their exact computation may be prohibitively expensive. We investigate whether meaningful Shapley value estimations can be obtained in a zero-shot setting, using only the input data distribution and no evaluations of the target model. To this end, we introduce ExplainerPFN, a tabular foundation model built on TabPFN that is pretrained on synthetic datasets generated from random structural causal models and supervised using exact or near-exact Shapley values. Once trained, ExplainerPFN predicts feature attributions for unseen tabular datasets without model access, gradients, or example explanations. Our contributions are fourfold: (1) we show that few-shot learning-based explanations can achieve high fidelity to SHAP values with as few as two reference observations; (2) we propose ExplainerPFN, the first zero-shot method for estimating Shapley values without access to the underlying model or reference explanations; (3) we provide an open-source implementation of ExplainerPFN, including the full training pipeline and synthetic data generator; and (4) through extensive experiments on real and synthetic datasets, we show that ExplainerPFN achieves performance competitive with few-shot surrogate explainers that rely on 2-10 SHAP examples.