Detectability and Model Discriminability of the Dark Ages 21 cm Global Signal

Abstract: The 21 cm signal from neutral hydrogen atom is almost the only way to directly probe the Dark Ages. The Dark Ages 21 cm signal, observed at frequencies below 50 MHz, can serve as a powerful probe of cosmology, as the standard cosmological model predicts a well-defined 21 cm spectral shape. In this work, we assess the detectability and model-selection power of 21 cm observations assuming physically motivated foregrounds, optimistic error levels, and several observing strategies for the signals predicted in various cosmological models. Using a Bayesian evidence-based comparison, we find that wide-band observations covering 1-50 MHz can identify the evidence of non-zero 21 cm signals from models considered in this paper except the one with a smooth spectrum that peaks at lower frequencies. In particular, observations below 15 MHz are essential to avoid degeneracies with the foreground. Furthermore, even with observations measured at 5 MHz intervals over the frequency range 1-50 MHz, the 21 cm signal can be identified if the errors are sufficiently small. This indicates that the intrinsic 21 cm spectral shape can be captured without foreground degeneracy even with a limited number of frequency channels.