Chasing the Tides: Searching for Orbital Decay Signatures in Transit Timing Data and Tidal Models for 20 Hot Jupiters

Abstract: In this work, we present a transit timing variation analysis for 20 hot Jupiter systems, which we interpret with theoretical tidal dissipation models. For the majority of the sample, we conclude that a constant orbital period model represents the timing data best. Only WASP-12 b, TrES-1 b and WASP-121 b exhibit a changing orbital period, according to the most up-to-date results. We updated the orbital decay rate of WASP-12 b to $\dot{P} = -29.4 \pm 4.0 \mathrm{~ms~yr^{-1}}$ and the corresponding stellar tidal quality factor to $Q_^{\prime} = 1.72 \pm 0.18 \times 10^5$. For TrES-1 b, the median quadratic model suggests a period decrease at a rate of $-14.9 \pm 0.6 \mathrm{~ms~yr^{-1}}$, but the corresponding $Q_^{\prime} = 570 \pm 60$ does not agree with the theoretical estimates, which suggest $Q_*^{\prime} \sim 10^6$ due to internal gravity wave dissipation. Lastly, WASP-121 b exhibits orbital growth at a rate of $15.1 \pm 0.8 \mathrm{~ms~yr^{-1}}$, and theoretical results support outward migration due to strong inertial wave dissipation.