Bayesian Conservative Policy Optimization (BCPO): A Novel Uncertainty-Calibrated Offline Reinforcement Learning with Credible Lower Bounds

Abstract: Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to learn decision policies from a fixed batch of logged transitions, without additional environment interaction. Despite remarkable empirical progress, offline RL remains fragile under distribution shifts: value-based methods can overestimate the value of unseen actions, yielding policies that exploit model errors rather than genuine long-term rewards. We propose \emph{Bayesian Conservative Policy Optimization (BCPO)}, a unified framework that converts epistemic uncertainty into \emph{provably conservative} policy improvement. BCPO maintains a hierarchical Bayesian posterior over environment/value models, constructs a \emph{credible lower bound} (LCB) on action values, and performs policy updates under explicit KL regularization toward the behavior distribution. This yields an uncertainty-calibrated analogue of conservative policy iteration in the offline regime. We provide a finite-MDP theory showing that the pessimistic fixed point lower-bounds the true value function with high probability and that KL-controlled updates improve a computable return lower bound. Empirically, we verify the methodology on a real offline replay dataset for the CartPole benchmark obtained via the \texttt{d3rlpy} ecosystem, and report diagnostics that link uncertainty growth and policy drift to offline instability, motivating principled early stopping and calibration