State Forecasting in an Estimation Framework with Surrogate Sensor Modeling

Abstract: In recent years, computational power and data availability breakthroughs have revolutionized our ability to analyze complex physical systems through the inverse problem approach. Data-driven techniques like system identification and machine learning play an important role in this field, allowing us to gain insights into previously inaccessible phenomena. However, a major hurdle remains: How can meaningful information from partial measurements be extracted? In the aerospace domain, the challenge of state estimation is particularly pronounced due to the limited availability of observational data and the constraints imposed by sensor capabilities for tracking resident space objects (RSOs). To address these limitations, advanced compensation methodologies are required. Currently, range and bearing measurements obtained from radar and optical systems constitute the primary observational tools in the space situational awareness (SSA) community. In this work, we propose a novel framework that integrates a simplified reference dynamics model with a data-driven surrogate measurement model. This fusion process leverages the strengths of both models to estimate complex dynamical behaviors under conditions of partial observability. Extensive numerical experiments were conducted across multiple datasets to validate the proposed framework. The results demonstrate its efficacy in accurately reconstructing system dynamics from incomplete measurement data. Furthermore, to ensure the robustness of the framework, an initial consistency analysis of the surrogate modeling approach is presented. By addressing the current challenges and refining the integration of data-driven techniques with traditional physics-based modeling, this framework aims to advance state estimation methodologies in the aerospace sector.