Causal mechanism linking leadership change and project success in Rust open-source repositories

Determine whether changes in the identity of the lead developer in Rust open-source software repositories causally increase subsequent project success—as measured by GitHub stars and downloads—or whether prior increases in project success causally increase the likelihood of leadership change; characterize the underlying mechanism connecting leadership turnover and success growth.

Background

The paper analyzes over 6,000 Rust repositories and shows that roughly 10% experience a change in their lead developer. Using a matching approach, the authors find that repositories that undergo a leadership change exhibit faster growth in success (both stars and downloads) compared to similar repositories that do not change leaders.

Despite this robust association, the authors explicitly state that the mechanism behind the relationship is not understood. They discuss two competing explanations: success might attract and precipitate leadership change (e.g., by bringing new contributors and shifting roles), or leadership turnover might itself catalyze increased success (e.g., by unleashing creative or organizational benefits). Clarifying this causal direction and mechanism is necessary to interpret the observed correlation and to guide managerial or community decisions in open-source projects.