Causes of the post-2018 surge in disappearances in Mexico

Determine the causal factors underlying the sharp increase since 2018 in the rates of reported disappearances of women and men in Mexico, as recorded by the Registro Nacional de Personas Desaparecidas y No Localizadas (RNPDNO), to explain the sudden acceleration in disappearance rates.

Background

The paper documents a drastic acceleration in official reports of disappeared women and men in Mexico beginning around 2018, based on RNPDNO data. This phenomenon occurs alongside broader trends of rising homicidal violence and impunity, but the specific drivers of the disappearance surge are not identified.

Understanding the reasons behind this spike is crucial for policy, as the study evaluates the impact of femicide laws and related reforms but finds no effect on disappearances. The authors note a hypothesis from Crisis Group that local pacts between authorities and criminal groups to reduce overt violence may have contributed to the rise, underscoring the need to isolate and quantify causal mechanisms.