Differentiability of the reduced-form win-probability function
Prove differentiability of the ex-ante equilibrium hiring probability function P*(b, e; x) with respect to both the bid b and signaling effort e under the modeling assumptions of Section 5, where P*(b, e; x) denotes a worker of observable type x’s reduced-form win probability and signal production includes additive noise and employer utility includes an idiosyncratic taste shock. Establishing differentiability is required to justify the use of first-order conditions for identification and estimation of worker costs and abilities.
References
We conjecture that due to the noise in signal production and the taste shock v, the reduced-form win-probability P* (b, e; x) is differentiable in both bids and efforts over IR2.
— Making Talk Cheap: Generative AI and Labor Market Signaling
(2511.08785 - Galdin et al., 11 Nov 2025) in Section 5.10.1 Identifying Supply