Differentiability of the reduced-form win-probability function

Prove differentiability of the ex-ante equilibrium hiring probability function P*(b, e; x) with respect to both the bid b and signaling effort e under the modeling assumptions of Section 5, where P*(b, e; x) denotes a worker of observable type x’s reduced-form win probability and signal production includes additive noise and employer utility includes an idiosyncratic taste shock. Establishing differentiability is required to justify the use of first-order conditions for identification and estimation of worker costs and abilities.

Background

In the identification of labor supply, the authors invert workers’ first-order conditions to recover costs and abilities from observed bids and efforts. This procedure presumes that the reduced-form win-probability P*(b, e; x) is differentiable in b and e so that partial derivatives exist and can be used in the first-order conditions.

The paper motivates differentiability by the presence of signal-production noise and employer taste shocks, but does not provide a formal proof. A proof would strengthen the theoretical foundation of the identification strategy that relies on Equations (7) and (8) and the subsequent inversion in Equations (9) and (10).

References

We conjecture that due to the noise in signal production and the taste shock v, the reduced-form win-probability P* (b, e; x) is differentiable in both bids and efforts over IR2.

Making Talk Cheap: Generative AI and Labor Market Signaling  (2511.08785 - Galdin et al., 11 Nov 2025) in Section 5.10.1 Identifying Supply