Evolution of oscillatory modes near AMOC collapse under chaotic dynamics

Characterize how oscillatory modes of the Atlantic ocean circulation change as an AMOC collapse is approached in systems exhibiting deterministic chaotic oscillations, and determine implications for selecting robust early‑warning observables and for diagnosing boundary‑crisis tipping instead of saddle‑node bifurcations.

Background

The paper notes that if the ocean circulation exhibits deterministic chaotic oscillations, the AMOC collapse tipping point would be a boundary crisis rather than a saddle‑node bifurcation. This affects both the nature of precursor signals and the choice of observables.

Robust early‑warning strategies must account for how oscillatory modes evolve under chaotic dynamics when approaching collapse, yet the authors stress that this evolution is presently unknown, complicating the interpretation of EWS and the identification of appropriate observables.