Social Exposure Increases Signaling through the Weight of Precedent

Establish that, for agents acting under the theory of appropriateness, social exposure to others’ behaviors, possessions, and conversations increases the probability of selecting a status-signaling action relative to baseline. Formally, given a status-signaling action a_s, an alternative action a_ns, and a context c with baseline probability p(a_s | c) in the absence of social memories, prove that adding memories m_s derived from observed signals increases the likelihood of choosing the status-signaling action so that p(a_s | c, m_s) > p(a_s | c).

Background

The paper advances a computational theory of status signaling grounded in the theory of appropriateness, proposing that agents act via predictive pattern completion and adjust their preferences through social observation and imitation. Within this framework, the authors formalize a central hypothesis as a conjecture linking social exposure to increased propensity for status-signaling actions.

The conjecture precisely states a probabilistic inequality capturing the predicted effect of social exposure on action selection, defining the relevant variables and situating the claim as the core mechanism underlying observed Veblen effects, preference shifts, and the diffusion of signaling behaviors in their generative agent simulations.

References

Conjecture [Social Exposure Increases Signaling through the Weight of Precedent] Agents are convention-sensitive. Let $a_s$ be an action of status signaling behavior and $a_{ns}$ be any alternative action (e.g., purchasing a functional good or private behavior). Let $p(a_s | c)$ be the baseline probability of status signaling behavior in context $c$ with no social memories. Social exposure (observing others' behaviors, possessions, and conversations) provides new memories $m_s$ that increase the counterfactual weight of precedent for $a_s$. These new memories increase the influence of past precedents for the action, making it significantly more likely to be chosen compared to a counterfactual situation where the agent had no such memories. Therefore, we predict that the probability of the status signaling behavior will be significantly higher in conditions with social exposure of the signal: $p(a_s | c, m_s) > p(a_s | c)$.

A Generative Model of Conspicuous Consumption and Status Signaling  (2603.13220 - Cross et al., 13 Mar 2026) in Conjecture (Social Exposure Increases Signaling through the Weight of Precedent), Section: Theoretical Framework: Predictive Pattern Completion as the Generative Mechanism of Status Signaling