Quantitative validation of ABM-based contact tracing realism and accuracy

Establish whether the contact tracing processes implemented in the agent-based model are quantitatively realistic and accurate by validating them against actual contact tracing logs or epidemiological investigation data, thereby determining the fidelity of the simulated tracing operations to real-world practice.

Background

The paper develops a high-resolution agent-based model to evaluate how information loss in manual contact tracing affects epidemic spread in large metropolitan areas. The model uses synthetic populations and multilayer social networks to simulate infector-omission and contact-omission scenarios and derives city-specific thresholds for contact tracing effectiveness.

However, the simulations were not based on actual contact tracing logs or epidemiological investigation records. The authors explicitly state that they could not quantitatively validate the realism or accuracy of the contact tracing processes reproduced by the model, highlighting a key unresolved question regarding external validity and model fidelity.