Formal properties of the probability of fixation: identities, inequalities and approximations

Abstract: The formula for the probability of fixation of a new mutation is widely used in theoretical population genetics and molecular evolution. Here we derive a series of identities, inequalities and approximations for the exact probability of fixation of a new mutation under the Moran process (equivalent results hold for the approximate probability of fixation for the Wright-Fisher process after an appropriate change of variables). We show that the behavior of the logarithm of the probability of fixation is particularly simple when the selection coefficient is measured as a difference of Malthusian fitnesses, and we exploit this simplicity to derive several inequalities and approximations. We also present a comprehensive comparison of both existing and new approximations for the probability of fixation, highlighting in particular approximations that result in a reversible Markov chain when used to model the dynamics of evolution under weak mutation.