How to Succeed in Crowdfunding: a Long-Term Study in Kickstarter

Abstract: Crowdfunding platforms have become important sites where people can create projects to seek funds toward turning their ideas into products, and back someone else's projects. As news media have reported successfully funded projects (e.g., Pebble Time, Coolest Cooler), more people have joined crowdfunding platforms and launched projects. But in spite of rapid growth of the number of users and projects, a project success rate at large has been decreasing because of launching projects without enough preparation and experience. Little is known about what reactions project creators made (e.g., giving up or making the failed projects better) when projects failed, and what types of successful projects we can find. To solve these problems, in this manuscript we (i) collect the largest datasets from Kickstarter, consisting of all project profiles, corresponding user profiles, projects' temporal data and users' social media information; (ii) analyze characteristics of successful projects, behaviors of users and understand dynamics of the crowdfunding platform; (iii) propose novel statistical approaches to predict whether a project will be successful and a range of expected pledged money of the project; (iv) develop predictive models and evaluate performance of the models; (v) analyze what reactions project creators had when project failed, and if they did not give up, how they made the failed projects successful; and (vi) cluster successful projects by their evolutional patterns of pledged money toward understanding what efforts project creators should make in order to get more pledged money. Our experimental results show that the predictive models can effectively predict project success and a range of expected pledged money.