Identifying On-time Reward Delivery Projects with Estimating Delivery Duration on Kickstarter

Abstract: In Crowdfunding platforms, people turn their prototype ideas into real products by raising money from the crowd, or invest in someone else's projects. In reward-based crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter and Indiegogo, selecting accurate reward delivery duration becomes crucial for creators, backers, and platform providers to keep the trust between the creators and the backers, and the trust between the platform providers and users. According to Kickstarter, 35% backers did not receive rewards on time. Unfortunately, little is known about on-time and late reward delivery projects, and there is no prior work to estimate reward delivery duration. To fill the gap, in this paper, we (i) extract novel features that reveal latent difficulty levels of project rewards; (ii) build predictive models to identify whether a creator will deliver all rewards in a project on time or not; and (iii) build a regression model to estimate accurate reward delivery duration (i.e., how long it will take to produce and deliver all the rewards). Experimental results show that our models achieve good performance -- 82.5% accuracy, 78.1 RMSE, and 0.108 NRMSE at the first 5% of the longest reward delivery duration.