Modeling the Role that Habitat Overlap Shape has on the Spread of Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Abstract: Brucellosis is a zoonotic bacterial infectious disease that affects livestock and wildlife. The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem is the last area in the United States where cattle are regularly infected with brucellosis. Even though livestock are vaccinated, interactions with reservoir species still result in spill-over cases to cattle. The National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has indicated that modeling efforts should focus on the transmission between elk and cattle and should be conducted to better understand the effects of land-use change and landscape configuration on disease risk. This chapter determines how the landscape's configuration, using the shape and amount of habitat overlap between elk and cattle, contributes to cross-species brucellosis transmission, and how land-use change translates to disease prevalence. A mathematical-epidemiological model is combined with landscape ecology metrics to estimate transmission rates between the species and model disease spread. The results of this study can ultimately help stakeholders develop policy for controlling brucellosis transmission between livestock and elk in the Greater Yellowstone Area. In turn, this could lead to less disease prevalence, reduce associated costs, and assist in population management.