The Effects of Land-use Change on Brucellosis Transmission in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: A Three Species Mathematical-Epidemiological Model

Abstract: This paper models brucellosis transmission between elk, cattle, and bison, of high conservation value, in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). It aims to show how landscape changes in the GYE concomitantly impact brucellosis prevalence in the three species. The approach allows us to see how landscape changes in one location influence disease prevalence in populations elsewhere. The model uses the fact that the populations are configured in such a way that elk are an intermediary for disease transmission between cattle and bison. Using landscape ecology metrics applied to the habitat overlaps between elk and cattle and between elk and bison, the landscape parameters are varied to determine how disease propagates throughout the ecosystem as land-use change occurs. Result aim to provide insights into how land management used for the control of disease spread between cattle and elk, may impact (and be impacted by) disease prevalence in bison.