Causal inference with misspecified network interference structure

Abstract: Under interference, the potential outcomes of a unit depend on treatments assigned to other units. A network interference structure is typically assumed to be given and accurate. In this paper, we study the problems resulting from misspecifying these networks. First, we derive bounds on the bias arising from estimating causal effects under a misspecified network. We show that the maximal possible bias depends on the divergence between the assumed network and the true one with respect to the induced exposure probabilities. Then, we propose a novel estimator that leverages multiple networks simultaneously and is unbiased if one of the networks is correct, thus providing robustness to network specification. Additionally, we develop a probabilistic bias analysis that quantifies the impact of a postulated misspecification mechanism on the causal estimates. We illustrate key issues in simulations and demonstrate the utility of the proposed methods in a social network field experiment and a cluster-randomized trial with suspected cross-clusters contamination.