Adopting Explainable-AI to investigate the impact of urban morphology design on energy and environmental performance in dry-arid climates

Abstract: In rapidly urbanizing regions, designing climate-responsive urban forms is crucial for sustainable development, especially in dry arid-climates where urban morphology has a significant impact on energy consumption and environmental performance. This study advances urban morphology evaluation by combining Urban Building Energy Modeling (UBEM) with machine learning methods (ML) and Explainable AI techniques, specifically Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). Using Tehran's dense urban landscape as a case study, this research assesses and ranks the impact of 30 morphology parameters at the urban block level on key energy metrics (cooling, heating, and lighting demand) and environmental performance (sunlight exposure, photovoltaic generation, and Sky View Factor). Among seven ML algorithms evaluated, the XGBoost model was the most effective predictor, achieving high accuracy (R2: 0.92) and a training time of 3.64 seconds. Findings reveal that building shape, window-to-wall ratio, and commercial ratio are the most critical parameters affecting energy efficiency, while the heights and distances of neighboring buildings strongly influence cooling demand and solar access. By evaluating urban blocks with varied densities and configurations, this study offers generalizable insights applicable to other dry-arid regions. Moreover, the integration of UBEM and Explainable AI offers a scalable, data-driven framework for developing climate-responsive urban designs adaptable to high-density environments worldwide.