Timeline to Develop Missing Deep Learning Capabilities

Determine how long it will take to develop the currently missing important capabilities in deep learning systems.

Background

The paper highlights the rapid and surprising progress of deep learning systems over recent years, noting that despite impressive advances, deep learning still lacks important capabilities. The authors explicitly state that it is unknown how long it will take to develop these capabilities, indicating a clear uncertainty about the timeline of progress.

This uncertainty is framed within the context of intense competition to build generalist AI systems that match or exceed human abilities in most cognitive work, underscoring the significance of understanding the development timeline for planning and governance.